PBKS vs RR — IPL 2026 Match 40 Prediction
Punjab Kings host Rajasthan Royals in Match 40 of IPL 2026 at the Maharaja Yadavindra Singh International Cricket Stadium, Mullanpur, on April 28 at 7:30 PM IST. PBKS arrive as the only unbeaten team this season; RR have stuttered in the second phase. Full pre-match analysis below: who will win, toss prediction, expected playing 11s, dream11 fantasy team, pitch report, head-to-head stats, fancy & session tips and live odds.
Get IPL Betting ID for Match 40This page reflects pre-match analysis. Updates will be added at toss time and post-match. For predictions on other matches, see our IPL Predictions hub.
Match 40 at a glance
| Match | IPL 2026 Match 40 |
| Teams | Punjab Kings (PBKS) vs Rajasthan Royals (RR) |
| Venue | Maharaja Yadavindra Singh International Cricket Stadium, Mullanpur |
| Date | Tuesday, 28 April 2026 |
| Match start | 7:30 PM IST (toss at 7:00 PM) |
| TV | Star Sports Network |
| Streaming | JioHotstar |
| PBKS form | Unbeaten, top of points table (~13 pts from 7) |
| RR form | Mixed: 4W in 8, only 1 win in last 4 (4th on points table) |
| Captains | Shreyas Iyer (PBKS) vs Riyan Parag (RR) |
| All-time H2H | RR 17 — PBKS 13 (30 matches) |
| Mullanpur 1st-innings avg | 211 (in IPL 2026) |
Match-winner prediction: who will win PBKS vs RR Match 40?
Our pre-match call: PBKS 60% · RR 40%
Punjab Kings go in as clear but not overwhelming favourites. The form gap, home advantage and Mullanpur record all point to PBKS, but RR have one weapon (Sooryavanshi) that single-handedly changes match maths.
Why PBKS are favourites
- Unbeaten run. Punjab are the only team unbeaten in IPL 2026 so far — that's not luck, it's a pattern. Their batting depth, captained by an in-form Iyer, has produced 200+ totals consistently and the bowling unit (Arshdeep, Chahal, Jansen, Bartlett) is the most balanced in the tournament.
- Mullanpur fortress. PBKS's home record at Mullanpur in IPL 2026 has been ruthless. They chased 265 in their last home game — an IPL record — and the venue's flat track suits their power-hitters.
- Iyer in extraordinary form. 4 fifties in 6 innings this season at an average near 70. He's anchoring the batting and timing acceleration brilliantly. Whichever team he stays in for, he wins.
- Chahal's matchup history. Yuzvendra Chahal has 18 wickets in 14 IPL games against Rajasthan Royals at an economy of just 6.46. That's elite numbers against this specific opposition. Expect him to be deployed against RR's middle order in overs 8–15.
- Chasing record. PBKS have chased 200+ targets eleven times in IPL history — the most by any team. If they win the toss and field first, they're hard to stop.
Why RR could flip this
- Vaibhav Sooryavanshi factor. Coming off 103 off 37 in his last game, the teenager is on a once-in-a-generation streak. If he gets going in the powerplay, no chase target is safe. He's the youngest IPL centurion ever and has scored 50+ in the first 6 overs four times this season.
- Yashasvi Jaiswal consistency. RR's most reliable run-scorer at the top of the order. The Jaiswal-Sooryavanshi opening combination is the most explosive in the tournament when it clicks.
- Jofra Archer's pace. When fit and firing, Archer is a tournament-shifting bowler. He can swing the new ball, hit the deck hard at 145+ kph, and disrupt PBKS's powerplay momentum before Iyer arrives.
- Pride factor. RR have lost 3 of their last 4. Another loss puts them in genuine playoff danger. Teams in this situation either rally with urgency or collapse — and Parag's RR side has shown enough fight earlier in the season to suggest the former.
The deciding factors
Sooryavanshi's first 6 overs. If he scores 60+ in the powerplay, RR have a real chance. If he goes early, PBKS roll through.
Toss outcome. Both teams want to chase. Whoever bowls first under dew has a meaningful 5–7% probability boost. If RR win toss, our call moves to PBKS 55% / RR 45%. If PBKS win toss, the gap widens to PBKS 64% / RR 36%.
Marco Jansen vs RR top order. Jansen's height and bounce against Sooryavanshi's compact technique is a classic matchup. If Jansen finds the right lengths, he could end the contest in two overs.
Toss prediction
The toss itself is a 50-50 coin flip. The bat-or-bowl decision is much more predictable.
Expected toss decision: bowl first (~85% probability)
Mullanpur in IPL 2026 has been a chase-friendly venue: dew sets in from over 12–15, the ball skids onto the bat, and PBKS themselves chased a record 265 in their last home game. Both Iyer and Parag will see the same data and reach the same conclusion: win toss, bowl first, set up to chase under lights.
If you're betting toss-winner-bats markets, the 'bowl' side is the value play. If you're betting match-winner pre-toss, factor in that whoever wins toss likely also gains the chase advantage. Wait for the toss before committing larger stakes.
Expected playing 11s
Punjab Kings expected XI
- Prabhsimran Singh (wk) — opener, aggressive against pace
- Priyansh Arya — opener, good early form
- Cooper Connolly — middle-order option (Australian)
- Shreyas Iyer (c) — #3 anchor, in extraordinary form (avg ~70)
- Shashank Singh — finisher, six-hitting specialist
- Nehal Wadhera — left-handed middle-order option
- Marcus Stoinis — all-rounder, Indian power-hitter at #6
- Marco Jansen — tall left-arm pacer with batting
- Xavier Bartlett — new-ball specialist (Australian)
- Arshdeep Singh — left-arm pace, death-overs specialist
- Yuzvendra Chahal — lead leg-spinner, strong record vs RR
Lockie Ferguson injury status and Glenn Maxwell rotation are the variables. Final XI confirmed at toss.
Rajasthan Royals expected XI
- Yashasvi Jaiswal — consistent opener, RR's most reliable batter
- Vaibhav Sooryavanshi — explosive opener, coming off 103 (37)
- Sanju Samson (wk) — experienced #3
- Riyan Parag (c) — captain, middle-order all-rounder
- Dhruv Jurel — consolidator, alternative wicketkeeper
- Shimron Hetmyer — finisher, power-hitting threat
- Wanindu Hasaranga — spin all-rounder (Sri Lanka)
- Jofra Archer — pace spearhead, new ball & death
- Trent Boult — new-ball swing
- Sandeep Sharma — experienced pace, slower-ball specialist
- Yuzvendra-style mystery spinner (Maheesh Theekshana likely)
Both XIs subject to confirmation at toss.
Mullanpur Stadium pitch report & weather
Pitch report
The Maharaja Yadavindra Singh International Cricket Stadium in Mullanpur has been a run-fest in IPL 2026. Average first-innings score is 211, with four 200+ totals already this season. The highest score here is PBKS's 254/7. The pitch is flat with even bounce, the outfield is rapid, and conditions ease further under floodlights.
Spinners can find some grip in the middle overs (overs 7–14) but boundary-hitting remains relatively easy. Pacers must rely on slower balls, cutters and yorkers in the death — conventional pace gets dispatched. Dew enters from over 12–15, making the ball skid and grip harder to find for both spinners and pacers.
Pitch verdict: Bat-friendly, par 195–200, chasing significantly favoured under dew. Expect a high-scoring contest with bowlers struggling in the second half.
Weather forecast (Mullanpur, April 28)
- Temperature: 32–35°C at 7:30 PM start, dropping to 28–30°C by close of play
- Humidity: 50–65%, rising after sunset (dew formation expected)
- Wind: Light to moderate, 8–12 km/h, no major boundary impact
- Rain: No rain expected; clear sky
- Dew: Significant from approximately 12–15 over mark of the second innings — this is the key chase advantage tonight
PBKS vs RR head-to-head record
| Total IPL meetings | 30 |
| RR wins | 17 |
| PBKS wins | 13 |
| RR win rate | ~57% |
| Yuzvendra Chahal vs RR (career) | 18 wickets in 14 matches at economy 6.46 |
| PBKS chasing record (IPL all-time) | 11 successful 200+ chases (most ever) |
Recent form (last 5 matches)
Punjab Kings: Chased 265 to win, beat DC, beat LSG, beat KKR, beat MI. Net: 5W 0L. Form line is exceptional — only unbeaten team in the tournament.
Rajasthan Royals: Lost vs SRH (chased 228 with 9 balls left), beat KKR, lost vs CSK, lost vs LSG, beat MI. Net: 2W 3L. Form line is concerning — the early-season unbeaten run is gone, and the bowling unit has looked vulnerable.
Dream11 prediction for PBKS vs RR Match 40
Recommended dream11 team (safe build — for grand leagues)
- Wicketkeepers: Sanju Samson (RR), Prabhsimran Singh (PBKS)
- Batsmen: Shreyas Iyer (PBKS), Yashasvi Jaiswal (RR), Vaibhav Sooryavanshi (RR), Priyansh Arya (PBKS)
- All-rounders: Marcus Stoinis (PBKS), Riyan Parag (RR)
- Bowlers: Yuzvendra Chahal (PBKS), Jofra Archer (RR), Arshdeep Singh (PBKS)
Captain & vice-captain picks
| Pick | Player | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|
| Captain (safe) | Shreyas Iyer | 4 fifties in 6 innings this IPL, average ~70, anchor batting #3 |
| Captain (alternate) | Vaibhav Sooryavanshi | Highest ceiling on tournament; just hit 103 (37); youngest IPL centurion |
| Vice-captain (safe) | Yashasvi Jaiswal | RR's most consistent run-scorer; gets full innings as opener |
| Vice-captain (alternate) | Yuzvendra Chahal | 18 wkts vs RR at 6.46 econ; matchup specialist |
Differential picks (for small leagues)
Lower-owned options that could be tournament-winners if they fire: Shashank Singh (PBKS — finisher, six-hitting matters at this venue), Wanindu Hasaranga (RR — spin all-rounder, can take wickets and score 20s quickly), Marco Jansen (PBKS — pace plus lower-order hitting). High-variance picks — appropriate for head-to-head and small leagues.
Fancy & session tips for PBKS vs RR Match 40
These are probability-based calls, not certainties. Stake sizes should reflect variance — small bets per market.
Powerplay (1–6 over) session
If RR bat first: lean over 58–62 — Sooryavanshi-Jaiswal opening pair has produced 60+ powerplays consistently this season, with Sooryavanshi specifically having scored 50+ in the first 6 overs four times. If PBKS bat first: lean over 55–58 — Prabhsimran-Arya is more measured but still aggressive on this flat deck.
Innings total over/under
Lean over 200 for either team batting first. Mullanpur's average first-innings score is 211, four 200+ totals already this season, and both teams have explosive line-ups.
First wicket
Lean over 30 runs. Both teams have explosive openers and the pitch doesn't offer enough early movement for a sub-30 first wicket.
Total fours and sixes
Match total fours: lean over 35. Match total sixes: lean over 16. Mullanpur's small boundaries plus rapid outfield plus both teams' boundary-hitting profiles support the over.
Top batsman markets
Top PBKS batsman: lean Shreyas Iyer — tournament's most consistent #3 batter. Top RR batsman: split between Sooryavanshi (highest ceiling) and Jaiswal (most consistent floor) — pick based on which odds give better value.
For deeper explanations of these markets, read our Fancy & Session betting guide.
Key player matchups
Marco Jansen vs Vaibhav Sooryavanshi
The most important matchup of the night. Jansen's height (6'8") generates steep bounce that troubles short batters. Sooryavanshi's compact left-handed technique has dismantled most pace attacks but Jansen's angle from over the wicket is something he hasn't seen in volume. If Jansen gets one in early, the chase calculus changes for RR.
Yuzvendra Chahal vs RR middle order
Chahal's track record against RR is exceptional (18 wickets in 14 games at 6.46 economy). He'll be deployed in the middle overs against Samson, Parag and Jurel. If Chahal takes 2–3 wickets, RR's batting card collapses. He's the single biggest factor in PBKS's bowling plan.
Shreyas Iyer vs RR pace attack
Iyer is in extraordinary form (4 fifties in 6 innings, avg ~70). RR's pace attack of Archer, Boult and Sandeep will need to test his outside-off discipline. If Iyer settles, PBKS get to 220+. If Archer or Boult get him early, RR have a chance.
Jofra Archer vs Prabhsimran-Arya opening partnership
Archer's pace and bounce in the powerplay can either dismantle PBKS's openers or get punished. Prabhsimran has been aggressive against pace this season; Archer needs to find his yorker length to bowl them out before Iyer arrives.
How to bet on PBKS vs RR Match 40
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Bet responsibly. Predictions are guidance only — cricket has high variance and even high-probability calls go wrong roughly 30% of the time. PBKS at 60% probability still loses 4 in every 10 of these matchups. Stake only what you can comfortably lose. Set deposit limits before the match starts. Don't chase losses with bigger bets.
Get IPL Betting ID NowPBKS vs RR Match 40 — Frequently Asked Questions
Punjab Kings enter Match 40 as clear favourites. They are unbeaten so far this season, sit at the top of the IPL 2026 points table, and play at home in Mullanpur where their batting and chasing record has been exceptional (including a record 265-run chase in their last game). Rajasthan Royals have lost momentum recently — just one win in their last four matches — and rely heavily on top-order runs from Yashasvi Jaiswal and Vaibhav Sooryavanshi. Final probability: PBKS 60%, RR 40%. Toss and Sooryavanshi's continued form could close the gap.
With dew expected at Mullanpur in the second innings and chasing teams favoured at this venue, the toss-winning captain (Shreyas Iyer or Riyan Parag) is highly likely to choose to bowl first (~85% probability). PBKS have chased down 200+ targets eleven times in IPL history, more than any other team — they're particularly comfortable batting second. Whoever wins the toss will almost certainly bowl, and that gives them a meaningful chase advantage under lights.
Punjab Kings and Rajasthan Royals have met 30 times in IPL history, with Rajasthan Royals winning 17 matches and Punjab Kings winning 13. Rajasthan hold the historical edge, but recent form has flipped this — Punjab have looked the more complete unit in IPL 2026, while Rajasthan have been inconsistent in the second phase of the season after a strong start.
The Maharaja Yadavindra Singh International Cricket Stadium in Mullanpur has been a high-scoring venue in IPL 2026, with an average first-innings score of 211 and four 200+ totals in just three matches played here this season. The pitch favours batting throughout, with conditions getting easier under floodlights and dew aiding chasers. Spinners can find some grip in the middle overs (overs 7–14), while pacers will need to rely on slower balls and cutters. Expect a high-scoring contest with par around 195–200.
Top dream11 captain options: Shreyas Iyer (PBKS) — 4 fifties in 6 innings this season, averaging nearly 70, batting at #3 in great form; Vaibhav Sooryavanshi (RR) — coming off 103 off 37 balls in his last game, the youngest IPL century-maker is on a different planet right now; Yashasvi Jaiswal (RR) — RR's most consistent run-scorer, gets full innings as opener. For grand leagues, Iyer is the safer captain pick; for differential plays, Sooryavanshi has the highest ceiling but more variance.
PBKS vs RR Match 40 of IPL 2026 begins at 7:30 PM IST on Tuesday, April 28, 2026, at Maharaja Yadavindra Singh International Cricket Stadium in Mullanpur, New Chandigarh. The toss takes place at 7:00 PM IST, 30 minutes before play. The match will be broadcast live on Star Sports Network and streamed on JioHotstar in India.
PBKS expected XI: Prabhsimran Singh (wk), Priyansh Arya, Cooper Connolly, Shreyas Iyer (c), Shashank Singh, Nehal Wadhera, Marcus Stoinis, Marco Jansen, Xavier Bartlett, Arshdeep Singh, Yuzvendra Chahal. RR expected XI: Yashasvi Jaiswal, Vaibhav Sooryavanshi, Sanju Samson (wk), Riyan Parag (c), Dhruv Jurel, Shimron Hetmyer, Wanindu Hasaranga, Jofra Archer, Trent Boult, Sandeep Sharma, Maheesh Theekshana. Final XIs confirmed at toss; Lockie Ferguson injury and Glenn Maxwell availability could shift PBKS's overseas configuration.
Powerplay (1–6 overs) session: lean over 58–62 if RR bat first (Sooryavanshi-Jaiswal opening pair are explosive), or over 55–58 if PBKS bat first (Prabhsimran-Arya is more measured but still aggressive). Innings total: lean over 200 either way given Mullanpur's recent run-fest character. First wicket: lean over 30 runs given both teams' explosive openers. Total fours over 35 and total sixes over 16 are also leans on this venue. These are guidance — adjust based on toss and confirmed XIs.
Weather in Mullanpur on April 28, 2026 evening is forecast warm with temperatures around 32–35°C at the 7:30 PM start, dropping to 28–30°C by close of play. No rain expected. Humidity will rise after sunset, contributing to dew formation in the second innings (typically from over 12–15 onwards). Wind moderate. Conditions are excellent for batting, with the chase advantage strengthening as dew sets in. Both captains will want to bowl first.
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